Fantasy 101: Top 75 Wide Receivers
From a fantasy perspective, the wide receiver position has changed a great deal in recent years. With the proliferation of three receiver sets and even elements of the spread in the NFL receivers are racking up stats like never before. Consider the following: 21 receivers had 1,000 or more yards and 22 caught 70 or more passes. Compare that to just 16 running backs gaining 1,000 yards in the dual RB era. In addition, leagues are beginning to compensate for the change by adding points per reception (PPR) and adding additional receiver spots (both great ideas which add value to WR and balance out the positions).
Most years, there is one wide receiver getting first round consideration, this year as many as 4 wideouts could be selected in the first stanza of a PPR league. While this number may sound high the running back class is not as dominant as in past seasons as the 5-19 running backs are clustered together closer than in recent seasons. While the wide receiver class is known for its depth there is major dropoff in risk after the top 12. With this being the case be sure to get one of the top 12 receivers. As always, be sure to know your league's scoring system when creating your draft strategy (hint: in non-PPR leagues wideouts are not as good of an early option).
Be sure to consult my Ranking the Rookie WRs article for an exclusive look at the rookie wideouts and where they should be drafted. (rookies are included in these rankings)
The scoring system used for these rankings was 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards rushing and receiving, 6 points per touchdown and -2 per fumble.
Without further ado here are NFLDraft101's consensus wide receiver draft rankings.
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals - Fitzgerald is the consensus top receiver after 96 catch, 1,431 yard and 12 TD season. He is the complete package of receptions, yards and touchdowns. The only negative is an injury to Kurt Warner could be devastating.
2. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans - Andre is finally getting the credit he deserves as one of the best all-around receivers in the league as the Texans offense exploded in 2008 led by Johnson's 115 receptions and 1,575 yards. He is a bit of an injury risk and is not a dominant factor in the red zone (although i expect that to improve this year) but he was a consensus #2 overall wideout in our rankings.
3. Randy Moss, New England Patriots - Moss is only one year removed from his amazing 98 catch, 1,493 yard, 23 touchdown season and the return of Tom Brady means he should bounce back from a 1,008 yard season. Don't expect the 1,493 yards or 23 TDs however, Moss is now 32 and can't race by corners like he used to. That said, he is still the among the best jump ball/red zone receivers in the league could slide more than expected due to his subpar 2008.
4. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts - With Peyton Manning coming off an injury, Wayne was not quite his dominant self last season but still managed 1,145 yards. With the departure of Marvin Harrison he is sure to be the Colts' top red zone target and is one of the safest wide receivers on the board.
5. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers - Smith can be a little feast or famine but is one of the top playmakers in the game and is capable of carrying a fantasy team on a given Sunday. Some complain about Delhomme being his quarterback but the biggest thing holding him back is his size as it cuts down on his red zone changes (just 6 TDs last season). Racks up the yards but not the TDs.
6. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions - Personally I was surprised to see Calvin rank this low on the list (not that #6 is anything to complain about). He is one of only two players in the top 6 under 28 and has the most upside of anyone among the top 6. He plays for the lowly Lions and will be catching passes from Daunte Culpepper and/or Matthew Stafford but don't hold that against him because that should be an improvement.
7. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons - There has been no more pleasant surprise among wide receivers the past two years than White who is entering his prime at 27 years old and Matt Ryan is sure to improve and take more risks in his 2nd season. He is no longer flying under the radar and there is a dropoff from White to 8th ranked wideout.
8. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers - The change to Brett Favre was the best thing to happen to Jennings he and Aaron Rodgers clicked from the get go and Jennings seized the go-to role from Donald Driver. Jenning is a great deep threat with a knack for the end zone despite being under 6'. The depth of receivers in Green Bay is the only negative with Jennings.
9. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals - Boldin is one of my personal favorite wideouts as you will be hard pressed to find a tougher wide receiver but from a fantasy perspective he comes with an injury red flag (played in just 12 games in '07 and '08). When healthy he actually outperformed Fitzgerald but you can't count on him to be healthy for a full season hence the #9 ranking.
10. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints - Like Boldin, Colston is an injury risk (coming off off-season knee surgery) but is the top target on the most pass happy offense in the league. Has the total package from a skill standpoint and at just 26 he is entering his prime expect a bounceback in '09.
11. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs - The best receiver on a team expected to continue its pass happy ways this season. Losing Tony Gonzalez will allow team's to roll coverages in Bowe's direction and next to Braylon Edwards no receiver dropped more passes. Bowe is young and improving so a breakout could be on the horizon which is why he is ranked this high.
12. Wes Welker, New England Patriots - Welker is the beneficiary of today's pass happy NFL and is easily the best slot receiver around. Extremely safe pick in PPR league's as he is guaranteed to give you 12+ points per week. He is not a great red zone threat and if your league does not give points per reception drop Welker at least 10 spots.
13. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos - Tremendous talent but is almost as combustible as TO. He is the best receiver on an passing offense that will find itself in a lot of shootouts. Must sit out the first three games and will have Kyle Orton throwing him the ball this year. Don't select Marshall to be your top wideout and it would not stun me if Eddie Royal passed him this season.
14. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills - Your can thank my Draft101 compadres for this lofty ranking of Owens. He'll be motivated by his 1 year deal and exile to Buffalo but could find himself the #2 receiver on his team for the first time since playing alongside Jerry Rice. Owens has clearly lost a step and dropped more balls than usual last season but remains a red zone threat. I don't like Owens but the rest of the Draft101 staff does.
15. TJ Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks - Freed from the shackles of Cincinnati Houshmandzadeh will either breakout or be a complete bust. From a skill standpoint he should be an excellent fit for the Seahawks west coast offense but he is 31 years old, is purely a possession receiver and never been a true #1 receiver before.
16. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers - Jackson has teased fantasy players for years and his breakout in last year's playoffs rose his stock on everyone's board. His stock falls a little in PPR leagues as he is more of a deep/red zone threat (only 59 catches last year but 18.6 ypc). Will likely be suspended for the first couple games for an off-field incident.
17. Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Came out of nowhere last year after sitting out all of 2007 because no one wanted him. He has always been a bit of a headcase but 1,248 yards and several dominant performances are hard to ignore. He is clearly the team's top WR but TE Kellen Winslow will steal some looks and the QB situation is murky at best. If Josh Freeman wins the job drop Bryant down a few notches.
18. Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys - A boom/bust pick. Roy Williams has the talent but does he have the work ethic. The absence of TO makes Williams the likely #1 receiver but he did not play well in big D after the trade. He has the talent but is purely a speculative receiver this high. I'd like him as my #3 WR but not my #2.
19. Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills - Evans should finally escape the constant double team's this season thanks to the arrival of TO but TO's arrival could also limit his looks. Overall, expect Evans to have more big games and more yards but the catches might not go up as much as you'd expect. Could have a career year but could also be the 1,000 yard 5 TD of past seasons.
20. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers - Holmes breakout performance in the Super Bowl showed everyone how good he could be but don't forget he has never had a 1,000 yard season thus far. He's more of a deep threat than a big receptions guy. Even if he breaks out don't expect him to top 75-80 catches.
21. Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns - Last year many were expecting Edwards to break into the top 5 receivers only to watch him develop a serious case of the dropsies. An emotional player, Edwards' play often matches his team's record which does not bode well for 2009 as the Browns appear to be in rebuilding mode. On the plus side, it is a contract year which will provide added motivation.
22. Chad Ocho Cinco, Cincinnati Bengals - In 2008 his nickname was Ocho Stinko as he followed up an off-season of complaining by coming into camp out of shape and out of focus. Many blame his struggles on the Palmer's injury but he was equally horrific when Palmer played. If he is comes into camp in good shape and focused he could have a major bounce back season. If you draft him be sure to surround him with some safer picks because he is a major boom/bust guy.
23. Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts - The departure of Marvin Harrison opens up a starting job for Gonzalez and he is positioned for a major breakout. The Colts offense has always supported two good wide receivers and it should not change this year with the smart, savvy former Buckeye ready to expand his role.
24. Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets - Cotchery has always been a solid possession receiver and with the departure of Laveranues Coles, he should now be the clear cut #1 receiver. He's not spectacular but should be good for 80 catches and 1,000 yards.
25. Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos - Royal exceeded all expectations as a rookie and is esp. valuable in PPR leagues. Expect Easy Eddie to be play a Wes Welker like role in the offense and be a favorite target of Kyle Orton. He has tremendous speed and acceleration making him a threat after the catch and on reverses. Expect his stats to increase across the board this year.
26. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles - Jackson is a playmaker who made a much earlier impact than expected as a rookie. Blessed with tremendous speed, Jackson plays a similar style to Steve Smith (Carolina). He should be the Eagles clearcut #1 receiver this year. His lack of size minimizes his red zone impact however.
27. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers - At 33 years old Ward's physical style has begun to take its toll but he's a solid #3 receiver who should be good for 70 catches and 800 yards and 6-7 TDs.
28. Santana Moss, Washington Redskins - Moss has never been productive in back to back seasons meaning 2009 could be a struggle. At 30 years old he still has above average speed but is not surrounded by good talent at WR or at QB. He could breakout for 1,200 yards or just as easily fail to get to 800 yards. He also faded badly in the 2nd half of last season.
29. Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings - He played well with Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte throwing him the ball meaning he should be able to step it up a notch with Brett Favre or Sage Rosenfels throwing it this season. Berrian is an excellent deep threat whose value is not as high in PPR leagues. This should be the year he finally gets 1,000 yards.
30. Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams - With the departure of Torry Holt, Avery has been given the keys to the Rams receiving game. Whether Avery is able to improve his route running and become more than just a deep threat will determine how big of a breakout he has this season. A nice upside play and should be better in PPR leagues than you would expect.
31. Laveranues Coles, Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals go from one hard to spell possession receiver to another with the addition of Coles. Expect Coles to put up poor man's Houshmandzadeh #s with a slightly better average per catch. Think 80 catches and 900-1,000 yards. He is a safer pick than Ocho but lacks the upside.
32. Devin Hester, Chicago Bears - Hester has an off-season at wide receiver under his belt and a strong armed quarterback to make him an even bigger deep threat. Will probably struggle to top 65-70 catches but expect more big games and TDs this year. He is the top receiver on a team that just paid a lot for QB Jay Cutler.
33. Kevin Walters, Houston Texans - This is one guy i had rated much higher than fellow writers. Walters never does not get much respect but could challenge for 1,000 yards now that he has a stangle hold on the #2 job on one of the league's fastest rising offenses. Also was targeted as often as Andre Johnson in the red zone so the 8 TDs was not a mirage.
34. Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints - Moore is coming off shoulder surgery and is a bit of an injury risk but emerged as an excellent underneath option for Drew Bress leading to 79 catches a year ago. He is more valueable in points per receptions leagues.
35. Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers - Driver has been passed by Greg Jennings and plays in a deep receiver rotation for the Packers but has managed to hold off Jordy Nelson and James Jones thus far. He is primarily a possession guy at this point in his career and might just have one more 1,000 yard season in him. If nothing else Driver should be as safe a bet as you will find for 60 catches and 800 yards.
36. Torry Holt, Jacksonville Jaguars - You will be hard pressed to find someone who owned Holt last year to take a chance on him again this year but with a #1 job in Jacksonville he might be able to eek out one more fantasy relevant season. Take a chance on him if he is available late in your draft but don't draft him as a top 3 wideout on your team.
37. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers - A rookie receiver or two seems to make an early impact in recent years but it is rare that the obvious choice is the one. That said Crabtree falls into an ideal situation with minimal competition. Not known for his speed he is an ideal situation to learn from a similar receiver in Issac Bruce who is known for his polish and route running. He is worth drafting mostly for his opportunity but don't expect him to be more than a WR3.
38. Steve Breaston, Arizona Cardinals - Breaston would be more valuable if Anquan Boldin were traded but as the highest ranked #3 receiver on our list, Breaston should still get a good share of looks in the Cardinals pass first offense. He will provide a few big weeks when Boldin misses his annual 2-4 games.
39. Ted Ginn, Miami Dolphins - The third season has often been the breakthrough year for young receivers giving Ginn a chance to make a major jump this season. While he would benefit from having a stronger armed QB, Ginn has more upside than any Dolphins receiver. He is a bit of a feast or famine player but could be more consistent with another year under his belt.
40. Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers - Has fallen behind Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson in the Chargers pecking order but he will get plenty of looks if he stays healthy and the offense continues to air it out (both big ifs).
41. Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants - It was not surprising to see Michael Crabtree rated at #37 but Nicks at Nicks as the #2 wideout was a surprise not to mention the near top 40 ranking. Even more surprising was that Nicks was ranked no worse than 45th by any of our staff. Why so high? Its about opportunity, sure Steve Smith is the safest Giants wide receiver but Nicks is the one with #1 talent. A risky pick but the upside is there.
42. Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans - Gage is hardly a great NFL wide receiver but he is the best receiver on the Titans (at least for now). He is injury prone and does not catch a lot of passes but he is a nice red zone target with a knack for big plays. Biggest concern is there is actually competition on the Titans roster this season.
43. Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings - Our staff was a little divided on Harvin, some think he is a dynamic playmaker who will be a nice threat in the slot on reverses and in the wildcat. Others think he is a raw wide receiver who will need time to develop. His stock takes a little bit of a hit with the word that Favre is not coming back.
44. Steve Smith, New York Giants - The safest wide receiver pick on the Giants. Smith is a nice possession receiver who should be a nice backup esp. in PPR leagues. There is some upside here but it is unlikely he will be the Giants top receiver come the end of the season.
45. Earl Bennett, Chicago Bears - Bennett is a nice sleeper pick after hardly setting foot on the field a year ago. He is the move the chains type of receiver the Bears need and the fact he played with Jay Cutler in college could give him a leg up on the starting job opposite Devin Hester.
46. Michael Jenkins, Atlanta Falcons - Jenkins is not spectacular and is ranked much higher than i expected he would (the staff rankings were split). Overall though i think the Falcons will pass more and Jenkins has emerged as consistent 50+ yard per week guy during the 2nd half of last season. Gonzalez's presence at TE could cut back on his targets but he will also face even more single coverage. 50-60 catches and 800+ yards is possible.
47. Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans - Some people see Washington as a breakthrough candidate whose talent (esp. blazing speed) will emerge now that he should be starting but don't count me as one of them. The Titans are still a run first team and Washington has deep speed but not well rounded skills. Expect some big plays but inconsistent results from week to week.
48. Deion Branch, Seattle Seahawks - Branch has been living off his name since arriving in Seattle and I don't expecting a breakout now is unlikely. 60-65 catches and 850 yards is probably his high water mark. He is an ok bench guy at this point esp. if you took a gamble or two with your top receivers.
49. Muhsin Muhammad, Carolina Panthers - Absolutely no upside but the 36 years old the possession receiver is a safe bet for 60 catches and 800 yards considering he has zero competition for the #2 receiver job in Carolina.
50. Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys - Like Earl Bennett, Austin is viewed a sleeper despite minimal production in previous seasons. The Cowboys need a receiver to emerge and some think Austin could surpass Roy Williams. Take a flyer on him as a backup receiver with upside but don't count on him to start.
51. Mark Clayton, Baltimore Ravens - Clayton's stock is on the rise with the Derrick Mason's possible retirement considering the Ravens have no other options. That said, Clayton has never really taken advantage of opportunities in the past. Looking at the guys ranked 10 above and below Clayton I think he may be the best combination of safety and upside.
52. Brian Robiskie, Cleveland Browns - Robiskie is a great route runner whose polish should allow an easier transition to the NFL but the Browns offense is expected to be overly high powered. Has the look of a solid possession receiver.
53. Patrick Crayton, Dallas Cowboys - Crayton will battle Miles Austin for the #2 receiver role in Big D but Crayton has always been a bit of a tease. He is a solid slot receiver but he is not a great breakout candidate.
54. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles - The Draft 101 staff was higher on Maclin than I am. He has dynamic skills and was a great playmaker in college, but he is very raw and don't expect immediate success. He could beat out Kevin Curtis for the #2 receiver job but will likely need a year or two. Despite my concerns, the breakout rookie receiver is rarely the one you expect.
55. Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins - Bess is a tough physical possession receiver who could really surprise. Really emerged the 2nd half of 2008 with 40 catches and 470 yards. Pay attention to see if he wins the starting job over Greg Camarillo. Much more valuable in PPR leagues as he not much of a red zone threat.
56. Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles - One of the biggest challenges for Philadelphia is that Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are all very similar receivers. All of them are speedy deep threats but none of them are possession type guys. Curtis will likely start ahead of Maclin but he has the least amount of upside of the trio. Expect 700 yards and a big game or two.
57. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders - The Raiders selection of Heyward-Bey was heavily criticized but he fits the mold of a Raiders vertical receiver to a T. He needs to improve his route tree and hands but he has talent and should be a natural on deep routes. Has potential and will virtually be handed a starting job but it is hard to draft a Raiders receiver right now. If he puts his talent together he could be very good but I expect him to take a year or two to develop.
58. Nate Burleson, Seattle Seahawks - Burleson was once considered a nice sleeper pick but he has never played up to expectations. With Deion Branch's injury history he could win a starting spot but may also have to battle just to keep his #3 receiver job.
59. Dominic Hixon, New York Giants - Hixon put up nice stats as a starter the second half of the season (492 yards) but he was inconsistent. With the drafting of Hakeem Nicks, Hixon's starting job is far from assured. Either Hixon or Nicks will be worth owning but it is hard to tell at this point which one.
60. Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens - Yes, as of this writing Mason is retired but there are rumors the he may change his mind and if he does he will have a chance a 1,000 yards again.
61. Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans - Big, tall physical receiver with #1 ability but how much playing time he earns as a rookie will determine his value. A rookie receiver will emerge and Britt could be worth a flyer late in case he is that guy.
62. Mark Bradley, Kansas City Chiefs - Bradley came out of nowhere last season to remind people of his playmaking ability when healthy. The Chiefs will look to pass early and often and aside from Dwayne Bowe and Bobby Engram there is not any proven talent. If they run a spread style offense again he could put up some nice numbers.
63. Issac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers - Sir Issac managed to eek out another 800 yard season thanks to Mike Martz but their won't be as many passes to go around this year in San Francisco and a 600 yard season is probably an optimistic view. As much as it pains me to say (as Bruce is an all-time fantasy favorite of mine) it is best to let someone else to draft Bruce's nostalgia. Take a young receiver with upside instead. You will be able to find Bruce types on the waiver wire.
64. Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings - Last year, Rice was a popular breakout candidate, now after battling knee problems last year most consider him to be a washout candidate from a fantasy perspective. While the absence of Favre will limit his Rice's upside. He still is a big, red zone receiver and he could be able to find a role as the team's possession receiver. Remember receivers often emerge in their 3rd season giving Rice a chance. If only the Vikings were more of a passing team.
65. Josh Morgan, San Francisco 49ers - After the drafting of Michael Crabtree and starting job is far from a certainty for Morgan but he flashed great talent at times last season. His big play nature could be a nice fit alongside Crabtree if he earns a starting job. The type of guy you take at the end of a draft.
66. Michael Clayton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Buccaneers did not sign Clayton to a big contract to have him put up another sub 500 yard season did they? Maybe being free of Jon Gruden will help Clayton return to his rookie form.
67. Mike Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars - Has battled knee problems since his college days. He flashed talent early last season before a knee injury slowed his progress once again. Someone has to catch the passes in Jacksonville and after the trade of Dennis Northcutt, Walker is one of the most experienced guys on the roster.
68. Devery Henderson, New Orleans Saints - A non-factor in PPR leagues, Henderson is a big play threat who only has modest fantasy value because he plays for the best passing offense in the league.
69. Antwan Randel El, Washington Redskins - If Randel El can hold off 2nd year receivers Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly he could put up another 600 yard season. Personally, I'd rather take my chances on Thomas breaking out knowing i can find a Randel El type on the waiver wire.
70. Joey Galloway, New England Patriots - Galloway landed in a good situation in New England's receiver friendly offense. He's 37 years old but will face single coverage and will be a possible bye week backup.
71. Bryant Johnson, Detroit Lions - Johnson is an annual tease who has never been able to live up to his talent. He has a good chance at a starting job in Detroit this season of course they said that last year in Detroit. His upside is the single coverage he will receiver opposite Megatron.
72. Greg Camarillo, Miami Dolphins - Camarillo is coming off an ACL injury and will battle Davone Bess for the possession receiver job in Miami. Pay attention to which one wins the starting job because there will not be enough passes for both two PPR guys who are not red zone threats.
73. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers - The Packers have a receiver friendly offense and Nelson has the skills to be a solid possession receiver. He will battle James Jones for the #3 receiver job. A better pick in keeper leagues.
74. James Jones, Green Bay Packers - Like Nelson, Jones is battling for the #3 job in Green Bay and personally i give Jones the edge due to his physical style of play. Ultimately the receiver who wins the #3 job in Green Bay has value and could eventually challenge Donald Driver for the starting gig (probably a year away). A better pick in keeper leagues.
75. Chansi Stuckey, New York Jets - Someone has to emerge as the #2 receiver for the Jets and is the favorite for the job over David Clowney and Brad Smith.
Other receivers of note: Laurant Robinson (Rams), Bobby Engram (Chiefs), Harry Douglas (Falcons), Chaz Schilens (Raiders), Johnnie Lee Higgens (Raiders), Brad Smith (Jets) and Plaxico Burress (if he stays out of jail and finds a team).
Chris Maier is the senior editor for Draft101.com. He can be reached at cmaier@nfldraft101.com.