• • • Live 2014 Draft Coverage • • • Updated Prospect Rankings • • • • • • NFL Games: • • • Atlanta 24 Jacksonville 14 (00:00 IN 4TH) • • • Detroit 23 Buffalo 0 (00:00 IN 4TH) • • • Indianapolis 7 Cincinnati 35 (END OF 4TH) • • • NY Jets 7 Philadelphia 37 (FINAL) • • • St. Louis 13 Miami 14 (FINAL) • • • Kansas City 14 Green Bay 34 (END OF 4TH) • • • Carolina 10 Pittsburgh 0 (00:00 IN 4TH) • • • New England 13 NY Giants 16 (00:00 IN 4TH) • • • Washington 24 Tampa Bay 10 (END OF 4TH) • • • Baltimore 22 New Orleans 13 (END OF 4TH) • • • Chicago 13 Cleveland 33 (END OF 4TH) • • • San Francisco 40 Houston 13 (00:00 IN 4TH) • • • Minnesota 19 Tennessee 3 (FINAL) • • • Denver 27 Dallas 3 (FINAL) • • • Arizona 9 San Diego 12 (FINAL) • • • Seattle 31 Oakland 41 (END OF 4TH) • • • • • • • • • NCAA Games: • • • Arizona at UTSA (THU, SEP 4 8:00 PM ET) • • • Pittsburgh at Boston College (FRI, SEP 5 7:00 PM ET) • • • Washington State at Nevada (FRI, SEP 5 10:30 PM ET) • • • Florida Atlantic at Alabama (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Oklahoma at Tulsa (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Western Illinois at Wisconsin (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Kansas State at Iowa State (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • McNeese State at Nebraska (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Missouri at Toledo (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Arkansas State at Tennessee (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Buffalo at Army (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Stony Brook at Connecticut (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • SMU at North Texas (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Western Kentucky at Illinois (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Akron at Penn State (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Central Michigan at Purdue (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • Howard at Rutgers (SAT, SEP 6 12:00 PM ET) • • • South Carolina State at Clemson (SAT, SEP 6 12:30 PM ET) • • • Navy at Temple (SAT, SEP 6 1:00 PM ET) • • • South Alabama at Kent State (SAT, SEP 6 2:00 PM ET) • • • UAB at Mississippi State (SAT, SEP 6 2:00 PM ET) • • • New Mexico State at Georgia State (SAT, SEP 6 2:00 PM ET) • • • Fresno State at Utah (SAT, SEP 6 3:00 PM ET) • • • Sacramento State at California (SAT, SEP 6 3:00 PM ET) • • • Colorado at Massachusetts (SAT, SEP 6 3:00 PM ET) • • • Eastern Washington at Washington (SAT, SEP 6 3:05 PM ET) • • • USC at Stanford (SAT, SEP 6 3:30 PM ET) • • • Eastern Kentucky at Miami (OH) (SAT, SEP 6 3:30 PM ET) • • • Virginia Military Institute at Bowling Green (SAT, SEP 6 3:30 PM ET) • • • Ohio at Kentucky (SAT, SEP 6 3:30 PM ET) • • • Northern Illinois at Northwestern (SAT, SEP 6 3:30 PM ET) • • • Maryland at South Florida (SAT, SEP 6 3:30 PM ET) • • • Ball State at Iowa (SAT, SEP 6 3:30 PM ET) • • • Middle Tennessee at Minnesota (SAT, SEP 6 3:30 PM ET) • • • Missouri State at Oklahoma State (SAT, SEP 6 3:30 PM ET) • • • Richmond at Virginia (SAT, SEP 6 3:30 PM ET) • • • Georgia Tech at Tulane (SAT, SEP 6 4:00 PM ET) • • • Eastern Michigan at Florida (SAT, SEP 6 4:00 PM ET) • • • Nicholls State at Arkansas (SAT, SEP 6 4:00 PM ET) • • • Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (SAT, SEP 6 4:30 PM ET) • • • Campbell at Appalachian State (SAT, SEP 6 6:00 PM ET) • • • Old Dominion at North Carolina State (SAT, SEP 6 6:00 PM ET) • • • Wagner at Florida International (SAT, SEP 6 6:00 PM ET) • • • Savannah State at Georgia Southern (SAT, SEP 6 6:00 PM ET) • • • Michigan State at Oregon (SAT, SEP 6 6:30 PM ET) • • • Gardner-Webb at Wake Forest (SAT, SEP 6 6:30 PM ET) • • • San Jose State at Auburn (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • East Carolina at South Carolina (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • Arizona State at New Mexico (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • Southeast Missouri State at Kansas (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • Murray State at Louisville (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • Florida A&M at Miami (FL) (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • Duke at Troy (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • Louisiana Tech at Louisiana-Lafayette (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • Rhode Island at Marshall (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • Alcorn State at Southern Miss (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • Idaho at Louisiana-Monroe (SAT, SEP 6 7:00 PM ET) • • • Citadel at Florida State (SAT, SEP 6 7:30 PM ET) • • • Northwestern State at Baylor (SAT, SEP 6 7:30 PM ET) • • • Sam Houston State at LSU (SAT, SEP 6 7:30 PM ET) • • • Michigan at Notre Dame (SAT, SEP 6 7:30 PM ET) • • • Lamar at Texas A&M (SAT, SEP 6 7:30 PM ET) • • • BYU at Texas (SAT, SEP 6 7:30 PM ET) • • • Towson at West Virginia (SAT, SEP 6 7:30 PM ET) • • • Virginia Tech at Ohio State (SAT, SEP 6 8:00 PM ET) • • • San Diego State at North Carolina (SAT, SEP 6 8:00 PM ET) • • • Grambling State at Houston (SAT, SEP 6 8:00 PM ET) • • • Idaho State at Utah State (SAT, SEP 6 8:00 PM ET) • • • Memphis at UCLA (SAT, SEP 6 10:00 PM ET) • • • Northern Colorado at UNLV (SAT, SEP 6 10:00 PM ET) • • • Air Force at Wyoming (SAT, SEP 6 10:15 PM ET) • • • Colorado State at Boise State (SAT, SEP 6 10:15 PM ET) • • • Oregon State at Hawaii (SAT, SEP 6 10:30 PM ET) • • • Texas Tech at UTEP (SAT, SEP 6 11:00 PM ET) • • • • • •

Updating the NFL Draft Trade Value Chart


By Chris Maier on 04-15-2010




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Back in the 1990s when Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys created the Trade Value Chart it was revolutionary. The Cowboys manipulated the draft with remarkable efficiency. As other teams have picked up the concept the chart began to lose its value. The biggest problem is the trade value chart has remained a constant over the years. While the chart varies slightly from team to team it has not varied from year to year.  Two major considerations have not been taken into account.  

First, the economics of draft picks have changed drastically over the years.  The value of picks at the top of the draft have diminished as the salaries risen. For example, the number one overall pick in the 2009 draft, Matthew Stafford, received a contract making him one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the league without ever playing a down.   The value of the later round picks have increased as well because those players are less expensive than veterans. 

Secondly, the players at the top of the draft only hold a lofty value if the players available in those slots are worth the value.   The 2010 draft lacks a sure-fire #1 overall pick as a group of players are rated closely together and the player generally considered the #1 pick, Sam Bradford, is not the top player on most boards.  He is a good not great franchise quarterback prospect who played in a spread and is coming off shoulder surgery to his throwing arm.  As a result the value of the #1 overall pick is diminished.  The top two players on most boards are Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy both of whom are great prospects but neither is generating trade interest as teams are not excited about the prospect of paying a defensive tackle #1 overall money considering the high bust rate at the position.  The value of the group behind these players including OT Russell Okung, S Eric Berry, QB Jimmy Clausen, DE Derrick Morgan, RB CJ Spiller and WR Dez Bryant is not a steep drop either. 

The 2010 NFL Draft is considered one of the best drafts in recent memory but not because of the talent at the top of the draft but the depth of the talent both throughout the top 64 and the draft as a whole. When there is not a great disparity among the value of the top players the value of the top picks is again diminished.   

An example of the disparity in the value of top 10 picks can be found in Jacksonville’s 2008 trade up from #26 to #8 overall with Baltimore.  According to the trade value chart the 8th overall selection should have been worth 1,400 points.   By trading picks 26, 71, 89 and 125 the Jaguars gave up only 1,127 points.  Even with the recommended adjustments in the chart the 8th pick is 1,350 points and the points given up have only closed the gap from 273 points to 178 points.  In other words from a chart standpoint the Jaguars still got the better end of the deal just not quite as good (the Ravens clearly won based on personnel Derrick Harvey vs. Joe Flacco?).  This just goes to show how hard it is for a team to make a move from the 20s into the top 10 which leads to the next point in the trade decision. 

As the Ravens-Jaguars trade demonstrates economics and the draft pool have lowered the value of the players at the top of the draft.  In addition, with the need to add as many quality young players as possible to one’s roster the value of the later round picks has increased a little as well. In other words with the supply (i.e. teams wanting to trade) outweighing the demand (team’s wanting to move up) the trade value chart needs to be updated. (see chart below).  

With the top overall pick having less value than in the past due to lack of a marquee talent  and the increased price tag of the top picks, the baseline has been reduced to 600 points to 2400. The chart then drops 225 points to #2, 175 to #3 and 150 points for picks 4 and 5. The drop continues to gradually work its way closer to the current chart around pick 18. The side benefit of the new chart is the increased value (at least proportionally) of 2nd round picks. The value in the draft the past few seasons has been the depth of talent between picks 25-50 and 2010 appears that way as well. The new chart takes this into account as teams in the top 10 should be able to move up 4-5 spots by using their 1st and 2nd rounder. Teams outside the top 10 need to dig a little deeper to move up but the price is not nearly as prohibitive. That said a team in the 20s will still need to make a major commitment to get into the top 5. The late round picks value is increased slightly but there is minor tweak to the chart to account for compensation picks after rounds 3, 4, 5, and 6 as those picks cannot be traded. 

One final adjustment for 2010, is the value of the first pick of round two is actually higher than the last two picks of round one as the pick carries the added value of almost an entire day for teams to negotiate with the Rams for the right to make the first selection of day two. 

Aside from 2008’s Ravens-Jaguars trade, moves into the top 10 have become almost non-existent (none occured in 2009).  One of the biggest reasons behind this trend are the constraints of the trade value chart and subsequent backlash for giving up too much or getting too little.  Yet sometimes teams may have determined they need accumulate picks, do not believe a player on the board is worth the draft position’s salary slot or the player the team wants will be available a few picks later and getting an additional pick allows them to add another player.  In these instances where a team has determined its best course of action is to trade down, they need to avoid being hamstrung by the chart and lower their expectations. 

The best demonstration of changing expectations is provided by the Carolina Panthers in 1995. The Panthers valued QB Kerry Collins but did not want to pay him #1 money. They subsequently traded down from the #1 pick in exchange for the 5th overall pick and a 2nd rounder. They still managed to select Collins and acquired another top 40 pick in the process.

In the end whether you use the traditional trade chart or the updated one, remember the Draft Trade Chart is a tool not a rule.


Pick Round 1 Pick Round 2 Pick Round 3 Pick Round 4 Pick Round 5 Pick Round 6 Pick Round 7
1 2400 33 630 65 275 97 111 129 44.7 161 26.5 193 14.1
2 2175 34 580 66 270 98 107 130 43.8 162 26.1 194 13.8
3 2000 35 570 67 265 99 104 131 43.0 163 25.7 195 13.5
4 1850 36 560 68 260 100 101 132 42.2 164 25.3 196 13.2
5 1700 37 550 69 255 101 98 133 41.4 165 24.9 197 12.9
6 1575 38 540 70 250 102 96 134 40.6 166 24.5 198 12.6
7 1450 39 530 71 245 103 94 135 39.8 167 24.1 199 12.3
8 1350 40 520 72 240 104 92 136 39.1 168 23.7 200 12
9 1250 41 510 73 235 105 90 137 38.4 169 23.3 201 11.7
10 1200 42 500 74 230 106 88 138 37.8 170 23 202 11.4
11 1150 43 490 75 225 107 86 139 37.3 171 22.5 203 11.1
12 1100 44 480 76 220 108 84 140 36.8 172 22.1 204 10.8
13 1050 45 470 77 215 109 82 141 36.3 173 21.7 205 10.5
14 1000 46 460 78 210 110 80 142 35.8 174 21.3 206 10.2
15 975 47 450 79 205 111 78 143 35.3 175 20.9 207 9.9
16 950 48 440 80 200 112 76 144 34.9 176 20.5 208 9.6
17 925 49 430 81 195 113 74 145 34.5 177 20.1 209 9.3
18 900 50 420 82 190 114 72 146 34.1 178 19.7 210 9
19 875 51 410 83 185 115 70 147 33.7 179 19.3 211 8.7
20 850 52 400 84 180 116 68 148 33.3 180 18.9 212 8.4
21 825 53 390 85 175 117 66 149 32.9 181 18.6 213 8.1
22 800 54 380 86 170 118 64 150 32.5 182 18.3 214 7.8
23 780 55 370 87 165 119 62 151 32.1 183 18 215 7.5
24 760 56 360 88 160 120 60 152 31.7 184 17.7 216 7.2
25 740 57 350 89 155 121 58 153 31.3 185 17.4 217 6.9
26 720 58 340 90 150 122 56.5 154 30.9 186 17.1 218 6.6
27 700 59 330 91 145 123 55 155 30.5 187 16.8 219 6.3
28 680 60 320 92 140 124 53.5 156 30.1 188 16.5 220 6
29 660 61 310 93 135 125 52 157 29.7 189 16.2 221 5.7
30 640 62 300 94 130 126 50.5 158 29.3 190 15.9 222 5.4
31 620 63 290 95 125 127 49 159 28.9 191 15.6 223 5.1
32 600 64 280 96 120 128 47.5 160 28.5 192 15.3 224 4.8
 
        3 comp picks 1 comp picks 5 comp picks 5 comp picks 15 comp picks


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