Updating the Trade Value Chart

Tweet Share on Facebook Bookmark on Delicious

Back in the 1990s when Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys created the Trade Value Chart it was revolutionary. They manipulated the draft with remarkable efficiency. As other team’s picked up the concept the chart started losing its value esp. for trades at the top of the draft. In general, the trade value chart has remained a constant over the years. Sure, the chart varies slightly from team to team but does it vary from year to year. After all, the picks at the top of the draft only hold ridiculous value if the players available in those slots are worth the value. In 2008 few players match up to such a lofty value.

Much like 2007, the 2008 draft lacks a sure-fire #1 overall pick. There are seven top guys in this year’s draft (Jake Long, Chris Long, Darren McFadden, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston and Matt Ryan). From a value standpoint, there is not a huge disparity amongst these seven. More than likely each of the top teams has these players ranked in a different order. Further diminishing the value of the #1 pick is the lack of a bona-fide franchise quarterback (a quarterback has been taken first overall five of the last six years). Matt Ryan is a good prospect but team’s aren’t lining up to give him $30 million in guaranteed money. Further hurting the top picks value are character questions regarding the drafts one elite skill position player, Darren McFadden. The Dolphins are coming off a 1 win season and have needs on both sides of the ball including offensive tackle, defensive end and quarterback. The prospects are none of these positions is considered a franchise maker. OT Jake Long is an excellent tackle prospect but he may not be an elite (Orlando Pace, Jonathan Ogden, Walter Jones) left tackle. DE Chris Long has an excellent motor, character and work ethic but will he be an elite DE or OLB who will give you 10+ sacks every year. Most everyone agrees their best option is to trade down but according to the value chart and salary cap hit, there is little interest in the #1 pick.

Not just the #1 pick is being affected by the trade chart era. In the last five years, trades within the top 10 picks have been rare. Teams trading into the top 10 picks has been virtually non-existent. With the supply (i.e. teams wanting to trade) outweighing the demand (team’s wanting to move up), it is time to update the trade value chart. (see below).

With the top overall pick having less value than in the past due to lack of a marquee talent and the increased price tag of the top picks, the baseline has been reduced to 500 points to 2500. The chart then drops 300 points to #2 and only 150 points for the next four picks. From #6-10 the drop is 100 points and gradually works its way closer to the current chart. The side benefit of the new chart is the increased value (at least proportionally) of 2nd round picks. The value in the draft the past 2 seasons has been the depth of talent between picks 25-50. The new chart takes this into account as teams in the top 10 should be able to move up 4-5 spots by using their 1st and 2nd rounder. Teams outside the top 10 need to dig a little deeper to move up but the price is not nearly as prohibitive. A team in the 20s will still need to make a major commitment to get into the top 5.

One other minor tweak to the chart was accounting for compensation picks after rounds 3, 4, 5, and 6 creating a bigger drop-off between rounds. (compensation picks can not be traded).

In sum, if teams at the top of the draft really want to trade down they need to lower their expectations. The Carolina Panthers in 1995 are the best example of knowing the draft and their role in it. They valued QB Kerry Collins but did not want to pay him #1 money. They subsequently traded down from the #1 pick in exchange for the 5th overall pick and a 2nd rounder. They still managed to select Collins and acquired another top 40 pick in the process.

In the end whether you use the traditional trade chart or the updated one, remember the Draft Trade Chart is a tool not a rule.